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The Week Ahead - Trade data, Monetary policy meetings, China performance

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Trade surplus is expected to be about RM18bil while exports expanded 40.6% in July, according to the median by a Reuters poll of economists. Malaysia’s total trade in June hit a new record high of RM270.4bil, up 43.4% on the previous year, as both export and import numbers continued to trend higher.

Trade data

THE Statistics Department is expected to release July’s external trade data on Friday.

Trade surplus is expected to be about RM18bil while exports expanded 40.6% in July, according to the median by a Reuters poll of economists.

Malaysia’s total trade in June hit a new record high of RM270.4bil, up 43.4% on the previous year, as both export and import numbers continued to trend higher.

However, as imports grew faster than exports, the country’s trade surplus shrank 0.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM21.9bil.

Meanwhile, a handful of corporate earnings results are due this week including Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd, Sime Darby Bhd, MISC Bhd, Dialog Group Bhd and Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Bhd.

Monetary policy meetings

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THE Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) and Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will announce their monetary policy this week.

BSP pointed to a 50 basis points (bps) rate hike. According to a Bloomberg survey, two analysts expect BSP to raise 25 bps while one expects a 50-bps hike to 2.75% and one outlier expects a 25-bps cut to 3%.

UOB Global Economics and Market Research has revised its BSP rate call for a 50-bps hike in the overnight reverse repurchase rate to 3.75%.

ING believes that’s still likely despite the recent disappointing gross domestic product report.

According to a Bloomberg survey, all five economists polled expect a 50-bps hike for the RBNZ Official Cash rate to 3%.

China performance

DATA due from China this week include industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment and medium-term lending facility.

Bloomberg estimates industrial production to grow 4.4% y-o-y in July from 3.9% in June while retail sales to expand 5% y-o-y from 3.1% in June.


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